In a dramatic turn of events, Karol Nawrocki has narrowly overtaken Rafał Trzaskowski in the second round of Poland’s presidential election, according to a late poll conducted by Ipsos for TVN24, TVP, and Polsat News. The survey suggests Nawrocki secured 50.7% of the vote, while Trzaskowski trailed closely with 49.3%—a razor-thin margin of just 1.4 percentage points.

The statistical margin of error for the poll is ±1 percentage point, leaving room for further shifts as official results are tallied. Just hours earlier, an exit poll had given Trzaskowski a slight edge with 50.3% against Nawrocki’s 49.7%.

If these figures hold, the 2025 run-off will go down as the most closely contested presidential race in Poland’s post-communist history. The previous record was set in 2020, when incumbent Andrzej Duda defeated Trzaskowski by just over two points—51.03% to 48.97%—a difference of 422,385 votes. That year’s initial late poll had forecast an even slimmer margin, showing Duda ahead by 1.6 percentage points.

Turnout for Sunday’s decisive vote is estimated at 71.7%, according to the late poll, slightly below the exit poll figure of 72.8%, yet still the highest for a presidential election since 1990. For comparison, turnout in the 2020 presidential run-off stood at 68.18%. Only the 2023 parliamentary elections drew a higher turnout, with 74.38% of voters heading to the polls.

Ipsos bases its late poll figures on official results from 50% of randomly selected polling stations where the firm conducted its surveys. A more refined projection, incorporating data from 90% of precincts, is expected around 1 a.m. This final late-night forecast will have a reduced margin of error of just ±0.5 percentage points.

In the first round of voting, Trzaskowski led with 31.36% of the vote, followed by Nawrocki on 29.54%. Voter turnout then stood at 67.31%.

With tensions high and margins historically slim, all eyes now turn to the official count to determine Poland’s next head of state. The final announcement will be made by Poland’s State Electoral Commission in the morning.

Source: PAP

Photo: @NawrockiKn

Tomasz Modrzejewski