A report highlighted by GB News claims that a significant proportion of new homes built in Britain over the coming years may be required to accommodate migrants, a projection that has sparked political debate about housing supply and immigration policy.

According to the article published by GB News, the claim is based on analysis using official population projections. The report states that “nearly four in 10 new homes built by 2030 will be needed to accommodate migrants arriving in Britain.”

The estimate derives from projections by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) regarding expected migration levels. According to the OBR’s forecasts, net migration to the United Kingdom between 2026 and 2030 could reach almost 1.2 million people.

Using average household size data from the Office for National Statistics, the analysis cited by the report suggests that this level of migration would require just under 500,000 additional homes to house new arrivals alone.

The article notes that Britain is projected to build approximately 1.34 million homes during the same five-year period. Based on these figures, the report claims that 37.1 per cent of all newly built homes could be needed to accommodate migrants.

The proportion is expected to increase further over time. The analysis cited by the piece suggests that by the end of the decade, the share could rise to about 39.1 per cent of new housing supply.

The calculations were produced by researchers working for the Conservative Party, and have been used by opposition politicians to criticise current migration levels. The report frames the figures as evidence that immigration is placing additional pressure on Britain’s housing market.

The report emphasises that the projection concerns future housing demand linked to migration, rather than a government policy allocating specific homes to migrants. The figures are instead derived from population forecasts and assumptions about household formation.

Housing availability has become a central issue in British politics. Government plans aim to increase construction significantly over the coming years, with a target of delivering 1.5 million new homes during the current parliamentary term. At the same time, migration levels and the strain on housing supply remain subjects of ongoing debate among political parties, economists and housing specialists.

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Tomasz Modrzejewski