Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has claimed that Poland and the Baltic states played a decisive role in preventing the European Union from opening new talks with Moscow in 2021, a move which, in her view, might have eased tensions ahead of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Speaking in an interview with the Hungarian online channel Partizan, Merkel said that by June 2021, she had the clear impression that Russian President Vladimir Putin “no longer took the Minsk agreement seriously”. 

In response, together with French President Emmanuel Macron, she proposed creating a “new format” for direct EU–Russia dialogue.

However, she stressed that not all member states were willing to support the idea. “Above all, the Baltic countries and Poland opposed it, fearing there was no common policy on Russia. In my opinion, we should have worked precisely towards such a common policy,” Merkel recalled.

The former chancellor also reflected on the wider geopolitical climate, arguing that the coronavirus pandemic had altered the course of world politics and possibly influenced Putin’s decision-making. 

“Putin did not attend the 2021 G20 summit because he was so concerned about the pandemic. And if one cannot meet in person, if differences cannot be confronted face to face, then no new compromises can be found,” she said.

Although she admitted that the 2015 Minsk accords “were never truly observed by Russia” and were “far from perfect”, Merkel insisted that they brought “a certain calming effect”, allowing Ukraine between 2015 and 2021 to “regain strength and prepare its defences”.

Looking back, Merkel suggested that had her proposal for an EU–Russia dialogue been taken up, Europe might have stood a better chance of forging a united strategy before Putin launched his assault on Ukraine.

Photo: @yasminalombaert/X

Tomasz Modrzejewski