According to an exit poll conducted for TVN24, TVP, and Polsat News, Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki are separated by a razor-thin margin of just 0.6 percentage points in Poland’s presidential run-off — a result that, if confirmed, would mark the tightest second-round race in the country’s post-communist history. Voter turnout is also estimated to be at a record high.

The Ipsos exit poll shows Trzaskowski securing 50.3% of the vote, while Nawrocki trails closely with 49.7%. Turnout is estimated at 72.8%, underlining the high level of public engagement in this decisive round.

The narrowest margin in a Polish presidential run-off since 1990 had previously occurred in 2020, when Andrzej Duda defeated Rafał Trzaskowski with 51.03% to 48.97% of the vote — a difference of 2.06 points. Duda won by just over 422,000 votes, with a total of 10,440,648 ballots cast in his favour compared to Trzaskowski’s 10,018,263.

Back in 2020, the exit poll after polls closed projected a result of 50.4% for Duda and 49.6% for Trzaskowski — a predicted gap of 0.8 percentage points, which is now potentially eclipsed by this year’s historic showdown.

The exit poll data suggests a strong transfer of loyalty among voters who backed President Andrzej Duda in the 2020 election, with the vast majority now swinging behind Karol Nawrocki. According to the figures, Nawrocki secured 93.6% of Duda’s former supporters, while just 6.4% opted for Rafał Trzaskowski in the current run-off.

In contrast, Trzaskowski appears to have held on to his 2020 base with remarkable success. An overwhelming 96.8% of those who voted for him five years ago backed him again, while only 3.2% switched allegiance to Nawrocki.

The exit poll reveals a clear gender split in voting patterns. Rafał Trzaskowski received strong support from women, winning 54.2% of the female vote compared to Karol Nawrocki’s 45.8%.

Men, on the other hand, leaned more towards Nawrocki, who secured 54.3% of the male vote, while Trzaskowski was backed by 45.7% of male voters.

The turnout figure reported in the exit poll — 72.8% — would represent the highest voter participation in a presidential election in Poland’s history. The previous record was set five years ago, when turnout reached 68.18%.

The only higher turnout in any national vote came during the 2023 parliamentary elections, when 74.38% of eligible voters went to the polls

You can track the official results here: https://polandelects.com/

The late poll results are about to be announced by 11 pm. The official results presented by the State Electoral Commission will be presented in the morning. 

Source: PAP

Photo: @SMuresan

Tomasz Modrzejewski