Britain is on course for a dramatic demographic transformation by the end of the century, with new research forecasting significant shifts in ethnic and religious composition driven by differing fertility rates and ongoing migration. The study, based on census data and official statistics, suggests that white British people will become a minority by 2063, while the proportion of the population identifying as Muslim and non-white is expected to rise steadily. The findings are likely to fuel fresh political debate over immigration, integration, and the future cultural identity of the nation.

“An analysis of migration, birth and death rates up to the end of the 21st century predicts that white British people will decline from their current position as 73 per cent of the population to 57 per cent by 2050 before slipping into a minority by 2063,” the article says.

The research, by Prof Matt Goodwin of Buckingham University, suggests that by the end of the century, the white British share of the population, defined as people who do not have an immigrant parent, could have fallen to around a third (33.7 per cent).

The UK’s ability to handle large-scale demographic change is under growing scrutiny, according to the analysis drawing on census data and figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Professor Matthew Goodwin, an honorary academic at the University of Kent, argues that the country faces serious challenges in adapting to the pace and scale of transformation revealed by the data. His findings raise pressing questions about the state’s preparedness to respond effectively to these shifts.

In the report, Professor Goodwin predicts that the trends are likely to fuel unease among sections of the public, particularly those who advocate for stricter immigration controls and a more measured rate of societal change. He notes that many such voters are motivated by a desire to preserve what they see as the traditional cultural fabric of Britain — its symbols, customs, and longstanding ways of life.

The research is expected to ignite political debate, with concerns mounting over how demographic changes might reshape national identity and social cohesion in the years to come.

A new study has projected profound demographic changes in the UK over the coming decades, driven in part by differing fertility rates among various population groups.

According to the analysis, individuals born outside the UK and members of the Muslim community are estimated to have higher average fertility rates. While the fertility rate among UK-born residents stands at 1.39, it rises to 1.97 for foreign-born individuals. The rate is even higher among Muslims, at 2.35, compared to 1.54 among non-Muslims.

These trends are expected to significantly reshape the country’s demographic profile. The proportion of the population identifying as white British is forecast to decline sharply — from 73 per cent today to just 44 per cent by 2075, and further down to 33.7 per cent by the end of the century.

At the same time, the share of the population classified as non-white is set to increase from its current level of 19.7 per cent to 34.8 per cent by 2050, 48.1 per cent by 2075, and 59.3 per cent by 2100.

The analysis also suggests that the broader white population, including both white British and other white ethnic groups, will no longer constitute a majority by the year 2079.

In terms of religious affiliation, the study anticipates a gradual decline in the non-Muslim share of the population, falling from 93 per cent in 2025 to 88.8 per cent in 2050, 84.8 per cent by 2075, and 80.8 per cent by 2100.

These projections are expected to intensify debate over immigration policy, integration, and the cultural direction of the nation.

Source: Telegraph

Photo: @Bob_cart124

Tomasz Modrzejewski