Experts from the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) are warning that the suspension of customs preferences introduced after Brexit would reduce the value of Polish exports to Great Britain by over EUR 1.4 billion per year.

The return of tariffs in trade between the EU and the UK would mean a decrease in Polish exports to Great Britain by over 10% per year.

Between January and October 2021, Great Britain was Poland’s fourth partner in exports, and the value of goods sold to the UK in this period amounted to EUR 11.9 billion. 

According to PIE experts, a mutual suspension of the application of the preferences resulting from the TCA agreement could mean a rising of the weighted average duty rate on the import of Polish goods to the UK from zero to almost 7%. 

One thing is sure, the increase in prices caused by the reintroduction of customs duties would contribute to a decrease in demand for Polish goods offered on the British market.

According to PIE calculations, this could mean a reduction of Polish exports to Great Britain by EUR 1.425 billion per year. The most negative effects of the reintroduction of duties would be felt  by 

Sales of food producers on the British market would decrease by over EUR 1 billion. 

“Poland’s trade with Great Britain would additionally decrease as a result of shifting the flows to the benefit of other EU countries with which trade is duty-free. Moreover, customs duties could negatively affect Polish companies producing in global value chains. Many of them supply parts and components to foreign plants producing for the British market,” PIE analyst Łukasz Ambroziak told Business Insider. 

Cover photo: British Poles

Author: Sébastien Meuwissen