Chatham House authors, Armida Van Rij and Melania Parzonka prepared an analysis in which they indicate that Poland is on its way to becoming Europe’s stronghold in the much-needed areas of defence and security.

The authors underline that Poland remains one of the few European countries that exceed the 2 percent GDP NATO military spending target. Poland now spends some 4 percent of its GDP on defence. 

Visibly Poland is going through a variety of hybrid attacks from the East, including arson, disinformation and sabotage. Despite that, the country prepares itself for a possible US military resettlement to the Pacific and a confrontation with regional threats on its own. 

The article suggests Poland strongly relies on Article 5 NATO guarantees and strong bilateral relations with the US but will have to implement more EU-led security initiatives in the changing geopolitical dynamics. 

The military spending in Poland rose 46% just between 2022 and 2023 alone. The Polish government now plans to increase that number by another 10 percent, and works to implement their security ideas into the EU official agenda. 

Besides that Poland takes its part in the broader, European security scenario by hosting NATO’s battlegroups under the Enhanced Forward Presence and a US ballistic missile defence base in Redzikowo. The country is also participating in the UE military assistance mission to Ukraine, and preparing a major training centre for joint NATO and Ukrainian soldiers in Bydgoszcz. 

The analysis says Poland was not eager to support EU security plans in the past because it feared duplicating NATO policies. 

The Polish security strategy also faces difficulties now and foresees some to appear in the future. As the authors write: “It struggles to retain military personnel and, despite ambitious recruitment plans, has not been able to fully staff its newly formed military units – meaning they have not helped increase operational capability.”

“The concern for Poland is that any strengthening of European defence may come at the cost of enabling further US disengagement from Europe. As Poland moves towards a more prominent role in safeguarding European security, it will need to balance this with efforts to maintain a close relationship with the US,” the authors conclude. 

Photo: NurPhoto

Tomasz Modrzejewski