Fitch is one of the world’s „Big Three” credit rating agencies. Last August, it awarded Poland with an „A-” credit rating with a stable outlook as economies worldwide struggled with the fallout from the Covid pandemic.

The arguments supporting that good note were motivated by Poland’s „diversified economy with a record of stable growth in recent years together with “a sound macroeconomic framework.”

The OECD raised its 2021 GDP growth forecast for Poland to 5.3 per cent this month. The previous projection amounted to 3.7 per cent. In the meantime, the 2022 projection for Poland went from 4.7 to 5.2 per cent, officials in Warsaw have noted.

Last November, The European Commission raised its 2021 GDP growth projection for Poland, predicting that its economy would expand by 4.9 per cent this year. Poland’s economy shrank by 2.7 per cent in 2020, after posting a 4.7 per cent growth in 2019, according to the country’s Central Statistical Office (GUS). The Polish economy grew by 5.3 per cent in the third quarter of this year, the Central Statistical Office said at the end of last month in a preliminary estimate.

Meanwhile, the agency revised its projection for Polish economic growth in 2022 downward, going from the 4.5 per cent announced earlier to 4.3 per cent, according to data provided by Poland’s PAP news agency. 

Fitch analysts expect inflation to grow by as much as 8 per cent in Poland in the first months of 2022. 

“With an output gap that is closing fast and is expected to turn positive in 2022, inflationary pressures are increasing,” the agency explained.

“We expect inflation to peak at 8% per cent early in 2022 and to moderate through the course of next year but remain above the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) target of 2.5 per cent. Consumer and business surveys show inflation expectations continuing to rise,” Fitch added.

Author: Sébastien Meuwissen

Photo: Unsplash