PersElection, a Polish-origin polling company, gave one of the most accurate predictions for the 4th July general election in the UK. The predictions were much more precise than those provided by British-based companies. 

The company provided its results in a post on X:

It also presented a comparison between their result and other British polling companies:

The company wrote a message to those subscribing the PersElection analysis:

“We have officially beaten all the UK election forecast companies in this campaign. We were millimetres short of beating the exit poll. 95% success rate in simulating seats. We beat, among others, YouGov, which prepares reports for SkyNews TV, considered the best product in the UK…”.

The polls raced to a record low seat prediction for the Tories (a record ’60’) and a record high Labour share of seat sharing (516). It came out differently. Our cumulative error on the two main committees is 9 seats with around 80 described as swings and won by the minimum. The overall forecast error was 35 seats. The average prediction error in the UK was 107.6 seats.”

Tomasz Modrzejewski

Photo: X @PersElection