In an article published in Politico on the 20th of June, journalist Matthew Karnitschnig draws attention to NATO’s weak point, located on its eastern flank. 

The Suwałki Gap (or corridor) is a 104 km-long strip of land connecting the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad with Belarus. It runs along the Polish-Lithuanian border and is named after the Polish town of Suwałki. 

A glimpse at the map of Europe reveals that if Russia managed to somehow connect its Kaliningrad Oblast with Belarus (which is de facto under Russian control) it would mean complete isolation of the three Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) from the rest of NATO. 

As Matthew Karnitschnig rightly notices, “Russia could sweep into the corridor simultaneously from the east and the west, severing the European Union’s Baltic countries from their allies to the south.”

Politico also underlines the considerable military presence of Russia in the Kaliningrad enclave combined with the unpredictability of Belarus make the Suwałki Gap NATO’s Achilles heel. 

Despite the Baltics’ strategic concerns, what may be the most dangerous thing about the Suwałki Gap is its relative irrelevance.

“A move by Russia on Poland or Lithuania would clearly trigger NATO’s Article 5 mutual defence provision […] At least in theory. How eager would Washington and NATO be to risk Armageddon over a stretch of largely unpopulated farmland […]? It’s exactly the kind of edge case that Putin has proved eager to test” – Karnitschnig wonders. 

History has taught Poland that military alliances and agreements can never be 100% trusted. 

Despite the invasion of Ukraine which has been going on for four months, it is still the country most exposed to the Russian military threat, such as the Baltic States and Poland which seem keen on fighting back against the aggressor. 

“You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour and you will have war.” Let us hope these famous words of Winston Churchill’s famous words will not have to be repeated.

Image: YouTube (France 24 English)

Author: Sébastien Meuwissen